Overall an awful week as I didn't listen to my own advice and broke all my rules by picking Cincinnati as a seven-point favorite on the road in Cleveland. Granted, nobody picked Cleveland slamming 51 up Cincy's can, but I should have seen it coming. Hopefully, we learn from our mistakes and have a better Week 3.
Here are The Dip's Week 3 picks (Home Team in CAPS and spreads based on Sportsbook.com lines).
For the Season: 4-5-1
San Diego (-5.5) over GREEN BAY - Whoa, whoa, whoa. San Diego was a Super Bowl favorite heading into the season. They beat the Bears, then got smacked by the Patriots. The offense has looked bad, the defense got torched, and everybody jumped off the bandwagon. Now, the Chargers are favorites, but everybody is picking the Packers to win this game. Why? The Packers beat an Eagles team that fumbled the game to them and they didn't even score an offensive touchdown. Then they beat up on a crappy Giants team. Green Bay's defense is playing well, but they haven't faced a back like LDT yet. Every week there is some line that Vegas begs you to pick knowing full well that its a sucker's bet. This is that line. Green Bay will get zero from its running game and Brett Favre and Donald Driver are good, but not Brady and Moss good. Plus, Green Bay has a losing record at home over the last two seasons so Lambeau Field isn't worth the 3 points that home field usually gets you. Green Bay will get about 40 yards rushing, Favre will throw three INTs and possibly fumble following a Merriman sack. LDT will score twice and Rivers will find Gates on quick passes and Tomlinson on swing passes out of the backfield. San Diego will roll the Packers at home 27-17.
Buffalo (+16.5) over NEW ENGLAND - Decided on a new rule. If a team scores seven points or less in a game, take them the next week plus the points. NFL players have pride and Buffalo will not want to go into New England and get blown out like they did in Pittsburgh. Atlanta played Jacksonville close and covered, Cleveland won outright, Kansas City stayed within 12 of Chicago, and Tampa Bay won outright over New Orleans. All four teams scored a touchdown or less in week one. I think that the Patriots will be on a little letdown following Sunday night's huge dismantling of the Chargers and may be looking ahead to Week 4's Monday night matchup with the Bengals. New England will win, but Buffalo keeps it respectable with a 31-17 loss.
WASHINGTON (-3.5) over New York Giants - Ugh. This is a definite loss, but I can't see the Skins only winning by a field goal in this game. Scores of 17-13 or 24-20 are much more likely. I would even take 14-10. Hopefully not since I'll be starting Portis and Cooley on my fantasy team this weekend. This game is sure to bring lots of screams from my couch on Sunday. Washington 24-17.
Carolina (-4) over ATLANTA - Oh, boy. After everything I said about Buffalo above and Cleveland last week I pick Carolina. Here's the problem by picking against the Falcons: 1) Home underdog. 2) Scored seven or less week before. 3) Division rival. 4) Starting QB called out by coach. What makes me go against everything is Carolina's loss to Houston last week. They should be fired up. I think that if they beat the Texans last week, they could be upset in this game. But Steve Smith won't let the Panthers lose. He'll be running the sidelines screaming at teammates all game. He lights DeAngelo Hall up for a score and the Panthers running game gets going again. Falcons' coach Bobby Petrino said QB Joey Harrington needs is hesitating too much and just needs to let it fly. Does he know that Harrington has more INTs than TDs in his career? Harrington lets it fly but the Panthers make most of the catches. Carolina gets a return for a score and wins 27-14.
LOCK OF THE WEEK -
OAKLAND (-3) over Cleveland - The Raiders could be 2-0 with close losses to Detroit and Denver. Warren Sapp and company will not lose the chance to get a victory with Cleveland in town. It was easy for Cleveland to get for division/state rival Cincy, but its a long trip to Oakland for the Browns. QB Derek Anderson comes back to reality with a couple of picks. The Raiders defense is much better than the Bengals defense. Lamont Jordan continues to have a good season and Oakland gets just enough from Josh McCown for a 17-13 victory.
Other Games - Just my opinion but won't count towards my season totals.
Indianapolis (-6) over HOUSTON - No Andre Johnson means throw the rules out the window.
Minnesota (+2.5) over KANSAS CITY - Kelly Holcomb is much better than Tavaris Jackson.
PHILADELPHIA (-6) over Detroit - Just a hunch. Think they're due. Seems like a strange line and oddsmakers know way more than we do.
NEW YORK JETS (-3) over Miami - No Zach Thomas. This is what they traded for Thomas Jones for.
PITTSBURGH (-9.5) over San Francisco - Could have been lock of the week. They'll shut down Gore and Alex Smith might actually cry on the field.
Cardinals (+7.5) over BALTIMORE - Defense is good, but offense is stagnant. Cards do just enough to cover.
Rams (+3.5) over TAMPA BAY - Another hunch. Just feel like Steven Jackson is due for a 150-yard, 2 TD game.
Jacksonville (+3) over DENVER - Denver wins every game with a late field goal. You'll either push or win.
SEATTLE (-3) over Cincinnati - Long trip for the Bengals and they didn't even pack their defense. Plus, bet the under of 49.5 points. When everybody thinks its going to be a shootout, it usually isn't.
Dallas (+3) over CHICAGO - Dallas offense is much better than Kansas City's. I'll bet against Grossman anytime.
NEW ORLEANS (-4) over Tennessee - I bet against the Saints in the Superdome opener against the Falcons last year. Not making that mistake again.
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