Mr. Poop will tell me I’m crazy. As a fellow Skins fan and eternal pessimist, The Poop will predict about 5-6 wins for this Skins team. I’m an optimist and like to think that a few close games will go in Washington’s favor.
Before taking a game-by-game look at the Redskins 2007 schedule, let me preface this with the following five things I believe heading into the season:
1. Clinton Portis will be healthy. Portis has been outspoken the past three seasons about his dislike of exhibition games. He feels that if guys like LaDanian Tomlinson do not have to play in preseason games, then neither should he. I believe the tendonitis in his knee was exaggerated to keep himself out of the exhibition games.
2. The offense will be better. Al Saunders has a notorious 400-page playbook. Every player has had time to learn more and the coaching staff will be able to expand the play-calling keeping defenses off balance. Kansas City was at the top of the NFL in offense during Saunders’ time there and Washington should start to climb towards the top half in 2007.
3. Jason Campbell will be in the upper-half of NFL quarterbacks in 2007. This doesn’t mean that he has to put up the numbers of Carson Palmer or Marc Bulger for the Skins to win. It means that he won’t kill drives with interceptions or fumbles and will scramble at the right times to keep drives alive. It means he’ll audible to the correct plays and take what defenses give him. But it also means that he’ll take chances down the field to stretch the defense and won’t miss open receivers.
4. The defense will be improved with the additions of LaRon Landry, London Fletcher, and Fred Smoot. Smoot was an excellent cover-corner during his seasons with the Skins, but seemed to lose his swagger while with the Vikings. I’m sure the Sex Boat scandal didn’t help matters either. London Fletcher-Baker is an excellent tackling linebacker and will immediately help the run defense. Plus, his leadership will help the learning curve of second-year LB Rocky McIntosh. Landry provides another run stopper at the line but also shows good cover skills and is a big time hitter. With improved personnel and a better secondary, defensive coordinator Greg Williams will have this unit back to the level they played at in 2005 when they were in the top ten.
5. They won’t choke away leads. With Portis and Betts both receiving carries, the Washington backfield will be fresh during the fourth quarter while opposing defenses will be tired. Both backs won’t go down with arm tackles and have the speed to break the long one as well as the power to grind out the tough yards.
So here’s my take on the upcoming season for the Skins. If I feel a game could go either way, I’ll give them the loss as a worst-case scenario.
Week 1 – Dolphins at Skins
The Dolphins looked out of sync during the preseason and new QB Trent Green is not mobile and hangs onto the ball too long. He always had TE Tony Gonzalez as a safety valve in Kansas City as well as Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson keeping the safeties in the box. Without Gonzalez and a shaky offensive line, I think Green is going to wish he didn’t push to join the Dolphins. I think Miami will get better as the season progresses but on the road in Week 1 is a great time for the Skins to face them. This will be a low scoring game as both offenses get up to speed. The Skins defense will blitz Green since WR Chris Chambers is really the only threat in the receiving corps. First round draft pick Ted Ginn, Jr. will get hit at the line by veteran corners Smoot and Carlos Rogers and the linebackers will keep Ronnie Brown from rushing for big yardage. The Skins running game will get stuffed by the Miami defense early but will wear down the defense by the fourth quarter and break some longer runs. WR Santana Moss should get deep for at least one pass in this game and the defense should get a fumble by Green to set up a short TD for the offense.
Prediction – Washington 24 – Miami 13 (Record 1-0)
Week 2 – Skins at Eagles on Monday night
The Skins never play well at the Eagles. RB Brian Westbrook will probably take a screen pass for a 40-plus yard touchdown and will gash the overly-aggressive Skins defense with draws and delays all game long. The Skins will run the ball against the Eagles, but with Philly’s quick-strike offense, will have to abandon hit in the second half. Campbell will get picked once by Dawkins and the Eagles crowd will be deafening. Not giving Washington a chance in this one.
Prediction – Philly 31 – Washington 17 (Record 1-1)
Week 3 – NY Giants at Washington
This week will be huge for Washington with the bye week up next. Tiki Barber ran wild on the Skins last year but Tiki is retired, finally. Safeties Landry and Sean Taylor will want to put big-time hits on TE Jeremy Shockey and WR Plaxico Burress. The Giants defense won’t be able to stop Portis and Betts and Cambell will have his best game of the first three.
Prediction – Washington 24 – Giants 17 (Record 2-1)
Week 5 – Detroit at Washington
With two weeks to prepare, Williams will have cornerbacks Smoot, Rogers, and Shawn Springs on the field to cover Detroits three-wide set of Roy Williams, Mike Furrey, and first-round draft pick Calvin Johnson. Lions QB John Kitna is turnover prone and should throw at least one pick and cough up a fumble. RB Tatum Bell ran all over the Skins while in Denver, but this isn’t the Bronco offensive line and OC Mike Martz loves to throw the ball around. The Detroit defense lost CB Dre Bly to Denver and Campbell should be able to hit Cooley and Moss all over the field. Big day for the Skins offense here.
Prediction – Washington 35 – Detroit 24 (Record 3-1)
Week 6 – Washington at Green Bay
Lambeau Field used to mean an automatic loss to any team unfortunate enough to have to travel there. Over the last couple seasons, however, Green Bay has been a friendly site for the opposition as the Packers have a losing record at home going 3-5 in 2005 and 2006. The Redskins will be making their first true road trip of the season with the Monday night game at nearby Philly the only other game away from Fedex. The Skins defense will handle WR Donald Driver and force Favre to go to young WRs Greg Jennings and James Jones. After a few shots from Taylor and Landry, these two will be alligator arming every ball across the middle. The Packers defense is much improved but the Skins should be able to run and before hitting Moss deep on play action. Moss’ speed should be too much to handle for aging cornerback Charles Woodson.
Prediction – Washington 27 – Green Bay 13 (Record 4-1)
Week 7 – Arizona at Washington
If this game was in Arizona, I would give the Cardinals the nod. But even with a new coaching staff and new attitude, these are still the Cardinals and they have shown the ability to find a way to lose on the road. The secondary will need to be on its game with WRs Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Bryant Johnson coming to town. I think that the front seven of the Skins should be able to contain RB Edgerrin James without the help of the extra safety, allowing Taylor and Landry to help cover the excellent receiving corps of the Cards. The Arizona defense played well last year, but the Skins running game will wear this thin unit down by early in the third quarter. At that point, Campbell will be able to find Cooley all over the field. I could see a Randle El punt return for a TD in this game and a key fumble recovery by the defense seals it.
Prediction – Washington 31 – Arizona 27 (Record 5-1)
Week 8 – Washington at New England
Tom Brady. Bill Belichick. Foxboro Stadium. No chance.
Prediction – New England 34 – Washington 13 (Record 5-2)
Week 9 – Washington at NY Jets
This is probably the most important game on the schedule. The difference between finishing the first eight games at 6-2 as opposed to 5-3 is enormous. Plus, avoiding two straight road losses will say a lot for this club. I think the Jets played well above their ability last year and should regress a little in 2007. RB Thomas Jones was a great acquisition for the Jets, but QB Chad Pennington and WRs Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery should not be able to bust loose on the Skins secondary. If the LBs can keep Jones at under four yards a carry and the corners keep Coles and Cotchery in front of them, the Skins should be able to steal a win from the Jets. Plus, a young, cocky receiver like Moss will love the chance to play big against his former team that he feels slighted him.
Prediction – Washington 23 – NY Jets 19 (Record 6-2)
After the first eight games of the season, the Skins have a legitimate shot to be 6-2. A great start like this will help increase the confidence of starting QB Campbell and lead to a great second half.
Week 10 – Philadelphia at Washington
I would like to think the Skins can pull this game out at Fedex Field, but beating the Eagles is never easy for Washington. This game has a chance to get moved to the Sunday night game on NBC and I think that stage belongs to QB Donovan McNabb. McNabb will have a great game and put a big hurt on the Skins with a road victory.
Prediction – Philadelphia 29 – Washington 21 (Record 6-3)
Week 11 – Washington at Dallas
The Philly game a week earlier is even bigger with a road game at Dallas a week later. It seems like Washington has won just once in Dallas in the last ten years. Joe Gibbs will have to do a great coaching job the week after this game to keep the Skins’ players from lowering their heads after a two-game losing skid. QB Tony Romo will have half a season under his belt and should be playing at a very high level. The home field advantage swings this game to the Cowboys, but the Skins will even this series at Fedex in week 17.
Prediction – Dallas 21 – Washington 17 (Record 6-4)
Week 12 – Washington at Tampa Bay
A second-straight road game and Washington’s history in Tampa has been up-and-down. They had a great defensive effort lead them to a playoff victory two years ago. I think we’ll see the same defensive performance lead the Skins to a victory in this match-up. Outside of WR Joey Galloway, no offensive players scare a defense. The front seven will control RB Cadillac Williams and keep pressure on QB Jeff Garcia. The key will be limiting Garcia’s yards on scrambles in third-down situations. Nothing kills a defense more than collapsing the pocket and having everybody covered but allow the quarterback to scramble up the middle for the first down. I think Taylor will shadow Garcia and Williams will have his defense blitz up the middle to contain Garcia. Tampa Bay will shut down the running game, but the Skins will go three-wide and throw all over the Bucs secondary. This is one road game toss-up that I’m giving to the Skins.
Prediction – Washington 23 – Tampa Bay 16 (Record 7-4)
Week 13 – Buffalo at Washington
Buffalo’s offense will be running well with rookie RB Marshawn Lynch and QB J.P. Losman and WR Lee Evans. Three great young players anchor the Bills offense. Unfortunately, the loss of CB Nate Clements and no defensive upgrades keep the Bills defense well behind the offense. The Skins will have to be very careful to not allow Evans to get deep. I think this will be a shootout to start, but the Skins will be able to roll on the Bills’ defense for the entire game. Campbell will have an excellent game and Portis and Betts may both go over 100 yards.
Prediction – Washington 38 – Buffalo 21 (Record 8-4)
Week 14 – Chicago at Washington
After an 8-4 start, the Skins will he very confident heading into this home game. I think they’ll have a shot, but for the sake of this forecast, we’ll call this game a loss. If the first 12 games go an predicted, I might change this score to a Washington victory.
Prediction – Chicago 17 – Washington 14 (Record 8-5)
Week 15 – Washington at NY Giants
Scheduled for a Sunday night NBC game, this will probably get bumped due to the Giants lackluster season to this point. QB Eli Manning will turn the ball over and the Skins will stuff RB Brandon Jacobs at the line. Portis and Betts will run well, allowing Campbell to hit Cooley and Moss on play action passes. I think the defense returns a pick for a touchdown in this one.
Prediction – Washington 28 – NY Giants 14 (Record 9-5)
Week 16 – Washington at Minnesota
Minnesota is one year away from being a good team. QB Tavaris Jackson is not ready to be an NFL quarterback and the receiving corps underachieves. New additions WR Bobby Wade and rookie RB Adrian Peterson will have good seasons for the Vikings but won’t be enough to change games. The Vikings defense was awful against the pass in 2006 and losing CB Fred Smoot to the Skins will not improve the unit. Plus, Minnesota defensive coordinator Mike Tomlin is now coaching the Steelers and Smoot will be able to help prepare the offense. After throwing for the first three quarters, Portis and Betts will keep the clock rolling through the fourth with hard-nosed running.
Prediction – Washington 24 – Minnesota 16 (Record 10-5)
Week 17 – Dallas at Washington
Revenge. Hatred. Playoff spot. Three reasons the Skins will be ramped up for the season-finale at Fedex Field. Portis and Betts will have to have a great game to keep the Cowboys from blitzing Campbell constantly. Quick passes to Cooley, Moss, and Randle El as well as screen passes to Portis and Betts will help keep the defense off balance. Landry and Taylor will have to blast Owens on his first couple of crossing routes to throw him off. Once he’s hit a couple times, he’s much more prone to drops. Fletcher and McIntosh will have to check TE Jason Witten in the middle of the field and RB Marion Barber on swing passes. I think the defense will be up to the challenge and Fedex Field will be rocking on December 30.
Prediction – Washington 23 – Dallas 21 (Record 11-5)
So Washington finishes with an 11-5 record and a huge turnaround from 2006. I think that the Tampa Bay, NY Giants, and NY Jets road games could go either way, but a 9-7 record could be enough for a playoff spot this season. As long as health issues to major players do not arise with this team, 9-7 should be easy. The offensive line needs to gel together, Portis and Betts need to form a great 1-2 punch, and Randle El and Brandon Lloyd need step up for the passing game. It could be a great season for Skins fans in 2007.
