Dipping Into The NFL - Week 6

Missed the picks last week as I spent the weekend at Edinboro University Homecoming. I only did two years of graduate school at Edinboro, but have been to six Boro homecomings compared to zero at Syracuse.

Its just a different environment compared to other homecoming celebrations. Edinboro is old school and new school. Saturday morning features a parade with floats made by the Greeks (not the ones from Athens, the ones that get paddled, circle fat parts in marker, and date rape) and a lot of drinking. There's a football game, but out of the nearly 7,000 students that attend Edinboro, about 300 of them care. And there isn't anything wrong with that, it's just Edinboro. And maybe that's why I love it so much.

True story - We were at a local bar at the start of the football game and all three televisions were showing the Edinboro game. On Edinboro's first possession they marched down the field and scored a touchdown. Out of the 75 people in the bar, I was the only one who noticed and clapped. We went to a second bar and the Penn State football game was on every television. But that's Edinboro and its more fun than you could possibly imagine.

So, here are The Dip's Week 6 picks (Home Team in CAPS and spreads based on Sportsbook.com lines). Edinboro did win its homecoming game 70-19. But not that it matters.

For the Season: 8-11-1 Locks of the Week - 2-2

Houston (+6.5) at JACKSONVILLE - Houston swept the Jags last season when the Texans were worse and Jacksonville was better. Garrard is due for a three-four INT game and the Texans will focus on stopping the run game. Take out MJD's 52-yard run last week and the Jags aren't exactly moving it up and down the field. This is way too many points in this series. Think 17-13 Jacksonville.

St. Louis (+9.5) at BALTIMORE - St. Louis might not score more than 3 points, but what has Baltimore shown to suggest they would score 13? The whopping 9 they put up on San Fran last week was pathetic. The Ravens' defense might be getting points here based on last year's performance. If Gus gets more than a second to throw the ball, Torry Holt can get open on these corners. If this were the Ed Jones Dome, St. Louis could pull the upset, but in Baltimore it could be tough. Think 15-10 Ravens.

New England (-5.5) at DALLAS - The Cowboys looked awful on Monday night and not just Romo's picks. They couldn't get any run game going and the receivers dropped too many balls. Belichick watched that game and realized that Romo couldn't read the zone coverage. That doesn't bode well for the Boys against a defense that is best in the league at disguising coverages and blitzes. Dallas will get its points, but its secondary can't contain Moss, Stallworth, Welker, Watson, and Faulk. No chance. Unless Roy Williams can horsecollar every receiver for the Pats, Brady will get another 3-4 TD game. Think 34-27 New England.

New York Giants (-3.5) at ATLANTA - I had to watch the massacre that was the Giants defensive line against the Eagles offensive line two weeks with McNabb as the starting QB of my fantasy team. Needless to say, I lost that week. What are those guys going to do against the rookie tackles of the Falcons? This could be ugly. If Petrino loses his mind and goes to the statue Leftwich at any point, they should charge him with accessory to murder cause that dude will get killed. My cell phone moves in the pocket better than that guy. With the turnovers and sacks, think 28-10 Giants.

LOCK OF THE WEEK
SEATTLE (-6.5) over New Orleans - Thought about New England or New York here but hate the road favorite as the LOTW. Plus, New Orleans is a train wreck and now the Saints have to travel across the country to play in Qwest field, one of the harder road venues to play. Plus, Seattle is home after getting shut out by Pittsburgh, pouring salt in the wound from the Super Bowl two years ago. This is going to be one pissed off Seahawks team. Think 27-17 Seattle.

BONUS LOCK
ARIZONA (-4) over Carolina - Vinnie Testaverde? C'mon. He's the best they could get? David Carr's back stiffened up on the team flight to Arizona. They probably made his sorry ass ride in coach, or a flight attendant might have sacked him in the terminal while the Panthers were waiting to board. Glad I kept Steve Smith in my keeper league over Owens and Wayne. Ugh. Think 31-6 Arizona.

Other games - Just my opinions if you want them

KANSAS CITY (+3) over Cincinnati - The Chiefs suck, but can the Bengals actually stop anybody?
CLEVELAND (-4) over Miami - Cleo Lemon, really?
Minnesota (+5) at CHICAGO - Back to Earth for Brian Griese. Cedric Benson might finish with -17 yards in this game.
Philadelphia (-3.5) at NEW YORK JETS - Can McNabb and company be this bad or do they play like they did against Detroit with Westbrook and L.J. Smith back? Here's picking the latter.
Tennessee (+3) at TAMPA BAY - Think VY has a crappy game, but can the Bucs score more than 14? That's a no.
Washington (+3) at GREEN BAY - Please, God. Seriously, please.
Oakland (+9.5) at SAN DIEGO - Division games are always close.

Redskins - Packers Preview

Week 6 – Washington at Green Bay

(September 4, 2007) Lambeau Field used to mean an automatic loss to any team unfortunate enough to have to travel there. Over the last couple seasons, however, Green Bay has been a friendly site for the opposition as the Packers have a losing record at home going 3-5 in 2005 and 2006. The Redskins will be making their first true road trip of the season with the Monday night game at nearby Philly the only other game away from Fedex. The Skins defense will handle WR Donald Driver and force Favre to go to young WRs Greg Jennings and James Jones. After a few shots from Taylor and Landry, these two will be alligator arming every ball across the middle. The Packers defense is much improved but the Skins should be able to run and before hitting Moss deep on play action. Moss’ speed should be too much to handle for aging cornerback Charles Woodson.

Prediction – Washington 27 – Green Bay 13 (Record 4-1)

Don't think I can stand by my preseason prediction after the way Green Bay's defense has been playing this season. However, they melted in down in the second half of the Bears game and showed a susceptibility to plays made by the TE and RB. Chicago TEs Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark combined for 7 catches, 119 yards, and 2 TDs. Chicago RBs added 3 catches for 37 yards. This is good news for a Redskins' team that has had trouble going vertical and will feature Cooley, Sellers, Portis/Betts, and underneath routes by Thrash and McCardell. Poor Santana Moss will be coming back to the huddle following many decoy go routes.

The Packers and Redskins enter this week with one loss each, both coming in games in which each team held a ten-point halftime lead at home but went on to lose the game. There were a couple of similarities between the two games:

1. Each team followed the gameplan of playing to keep the lead rather than extend it. Both teams ran the ball ineffectively in the second half. Run first down, run second down, incomplete pass on third down.

2. The Packers had 32 total yards of offense before their final drive of the game where they totaled 41 yards in driving for the tying touchdown. The Redskins had 31 total yards of offense before their final drive of the game where they totaled 32 yards.

3. Each team had a costly second-half turnover that directly led to an opponents' touchdown on the following drive.

4. Both teams played aggressive defense in the first half as Chicago and New York had just over 120 yards of offense and 10 total points. In the second half, both teams employed the prevent defense and got picked apart for 7 scores or 41 points.

The Redskins learned from their mistake and kept the pressure on Detroit in the next game. After allowing only 56 yards and four punts in the first half, the Skins picked off two passes and only surrendered a field goal in the second half. I have a feeling that Packers' coach Mike McCarthy will make the same adjustments and this game will be hard-hitting from the first quarter through the fourth.

The keys to this game will be on the offensive and defensive lines and in the secondary of the Skins. Washington will need to get pressure on Favre and not let him improvise and allow the receivers time to work open. Injuries to Green Bay's offensive line should help the Skins defense get to Favre without blitzing allowing extra defenders to drop back into coverage.

Green Bay likes short passes and allowing their receivers to run after the catch. The Redskins secondary will have to tackle on the first opportunity or the next opportunity will be in the endzone. If the Packers pick up the Skins' blitzes, then Favre will have time to hit Driver and Jennings on quick slants which often lead to long touchdowns.

The Skins line will need to keep Packer DEs Aaron Kampman and Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila off Campbell or he'll be attempting his throws from his back.

While I think the Skins have a great chance to win this game, I don't think they are at the point yet where they can go on the road and beat a good team. In the second half of this season, they could be. I do think they'll hold the lead for parts of this game, but will probably lose it in the fourth quarter.

Prediction: Green Bay 24 - Washington 20

Dipping Into The NFL - Week 4

Abbreviated picks this week as I spent the last two days watching our friend Scott complete his first Iron Man Triathalon in 12 hours, 13 minutes and change. Amazing feat. Congrats.

Here are The Dip's Week 4 picks (Home Team in CAPS and spreads based on Sportsbook.com lines).

For the Season: 5-9-1 Locks of the Week - 1-2

Chicago at DETROIT (+3) - Too many secondary issues for the Bears. I don't think Griese is the answer.

Green Bay (-2) at MINNESOTA - Favre is playing well and the defense is playing better.

Pittsburgh (-6) at ARIZONA - The Steelers are an emotional team. They'll be playing to prove that Mike Tomlin was the right choice as head coach.

SAN DIEGO (-12) vs. Kansas City - This is the week. It has to be.

LOCK OF THE WEEK

INDIANAPOLIS (-9.5) over Denver - The Broncos should have lost to the Bills and Raiders. They got blown out by the Jags. This won't be close. Think 21 plus. Sorry, PPD.

Stunning a Cougar

This is a crazy video.

Heidi Gill, a single mother of two, was out with friends at Up a Creek Tavern in Warren, OH on September 2, 2007 after attending a wedding.

Gill, 38-years old, was asked to leave the bar by bouncers. Apparently unable to tame the wild cougar, the bouncers asked police to help. Officer Richard Kovatch (sp?) responded and after finding the wild cougar uncooperative, decided that force was necessary to subdue the wild animal.

The officer tasered the poor woman seven times, including while she was handcuffed and WHILE SHE WAS IN THE BACK OF HIS CRUISER. That is nuts.

In the video, check out the part where she walks towards the back of the car. She takes a brutal shot off the rear fender.

Also, after the cop tells her to get out of the car and walk to the cruiser behind his, HE TASERS HER AGAIN! This time she falls to the ground and is knocked unconscious.

Dipping Into The NFL - Week 3

Spent Week 2 watching games in the luxury of my living room. A far cry from the Sportsbook at the IP where I spent Week 1.

Overall an awful week as I didn't listen to my own advice and broke all my rules by picking Cincinnati as a seven-point favorite on the road in Cleveland. Granted, nobody picked Cleveland slamming 51 up Cincy's can, but I should have seen it coming. Hopefully, we learn from our mistakes and have a better Week 3.

Here are The Dip's Week 3 picks (Home Team in CAPS and spreads based on Sportsbook.com lines).

For the Season: 4-5-1

San Diego (-5.5) over GREEN BAY - Whoa, whoa, whoa. San Diego was a Super Bowl favorite heading into the season. They beat the Bears, then got smacked by the Patriots. The offense has looked bad, the defense got torched, and everybody jumped off the bandwagon. Now, the Chargers are favorites, but everybody is picking the Packers to win this game. Why? The Packers beat an Eagles team that fumbled the game to them and they didn't even score an offensive touchdown. Then they beat up on a crappy Giants team. Green Bay's defense is playing well, but they haven't faced a back like LDT yet. Every week there is some line that Vegas begs you to pick knowing full well that its a sucker's bet. This is that line. Green Bay will get zero from its running game and Brett Favre and Donald Driver are good, but not Brady and Moss good. Plus, Green Bay has a losing record at home over the last two seasons so Lambeau Field isn't worth the 3 points that home field usually gets you. Green Bay will get about 40 yards rushing, Favre will throw three INTs and possibly fumble following a Merriman sack. LDT will score twice and Rivers will find Gates on quick passes and Tomlinson on swing passes out of the backfield. San Diego will roll the Packers at home 27-17.

Buffalo (+16.5) over NEW ENGLAND - Decided on a new rule. If a team scores seven points or less in a game, take them the next week plus the points. NFL players have pride and Buffalo will not want to go into New England and get blown out like they did in Pittsburgh. Atlanta played Jacksonville close and covered, Cleveland won outright, Kansas City stayed within 12 of Chicago, and Tampa Bay won outright over New Orleans. All four teams scored a touchdown or less in week one. I think that the Patriots will be on a little letdown following Sunday night's huge dismantling of the Chargers and may be looking ahead to Week 4's Monday night matchup with the Bengals. New England will win, but Buffalo keeps it respectable with a 31-17 loss.

WASHINGTON (-3.5) over New York Giants - Ugh. This is a definite loss, but I can't see the Skins only winning by a field goal in this game. Scores of 17-13 or 24-20 are much more likely. I would even take 14-10. Hopefully not since I'll be starting Portis and Cooley on my fantasy team this weekend. This game is sure to bring lots of screams from my couch on Sunday. Washington 24-17.

Carolina (-4) over ATLANTA - Oh, boy. After everything I said about Buffalo above and Cleveland last week I pick Carolina. Here's the problem by picking against the Falcons: 1) Home underdog. 2) Scored seven or less week before. 3) Division rival. 4) Starting QB called out by coach. What makes me go against everything is Carolina's loss to Houston last week. They should be fired up. I think that if they beat the Texans last week, they could be upset in this game. But Steve Smith won't let the Panthers lose. He'll be running the sidelines screaming at teammates all game. He lights DeAngelo Hall up for a score and the Panthers running game gets going again. Falcons' coach Bobby Petrino said QB Joey Harrington needs is hesitating too much and just needs to let it fly. Does he know that Harrington has more INTs than TDs in his career? Harrington lets it fly but the Panthers make most of the catches. Carolina gets a return for a score and wins 27-14.

LOCK OF THE WEEK -

OAKLAND (-3) over Cleveland - The Raiders could be 2-0 with close losses to Detroit and Denver. Warren Sapp and company will not lose the chance to get a victory with Cleveland in town. It was easy for Cleveland to get for division/state rival Cincy, but its a long trip to Oakland for the Browns. QB Derek Anderson comes back to reality with a couple of picks. The Raiders defense is much better than the Bengals defense. Lamont Jordan continues to have a good season and Oakland gets just enough from Josh McCown for a 17-13 victory.

Other Games - Just my opinion but won't count towards my season totals.

Indianapolis (-6) over HOUSTON - No Andre Johnson means throw the rules out the window.

Minnesota (+2.5) over KANSAS CITY - Kelly Holcomb is much better than Tavaris Jackson.

PHILADELPHIA (-6) over Detroit - Just a hunch. Think they're due. Seems like a strange line and oddsmakers know way more than we do.

NEW YORK JETS (-3) over Miami - No Zach Thomas. This is what they traded for Thomas Jones for.

PITTSBURGH (-9.5) over San Francisco - Could have been lock of the week. They'll shut down Gore and Alex Smith might actually cry on the field.

Cardinals (+7.5) over BALTIMORE - Defense is good, but offense is stagnant. Cards do just enough to cover.

Rams (+3.5) over TAMPA BAY - Another hunch. Just feel like Steven Jackson is due for a 150-yard, 2 TD game.

Jacksonville (+3) over DENVER - Denver wins every game with a late field goal. You'll either push or win.

SEATTLE (-3) over Cincinnati - Long trip for the Bengals and they didn't even pack their defense. Plus, bet the under of 49.5 points. When everybody thinks its going to be a shootout, it usually isn't.

Dallas (+3) over CHICAGO - Dallas offense is much better than Kansas City's. I'll bet against Grossman anytime.

NEW ORLEANS (-4) over Tennessee - I bet against the Saints in the Superdome opener against the Falcons last year. Not making that mistake again.

Redskins-Giants Preview

Week 3 – NY Giants at Washington

This week will be huge for Washington with the bye week up next. Tiki Barber ran wild on the Skins last year but Tiki is retired, finally. Safeties Landry and Sean Taylor will want to put big-time hits on TE Jeremy Shockey and WR Plaxico Burress. The Giants defense won’t be able to stop Portis and Betts and Cambell will have his best game of the first three.

Prediction – Washington 24 – Giants 17 (Record 2-1)

I think I'm going to stick with my original prediction for this game. The Giants are playing worse than I expected and the defense has been non-existent. But previous performances can be thrown out the window when it comes to rivalry games such as this.

Based on the first two games, the Skins should be able to put 30-plus points up at FedEx Field, but the Giants are going to bring everything they can to this game. The defense has been called out for the entire week and they are going to rally and play their best game of season to date. That shouldn't be hard after their first two performances.

The Skins will start out slowly and emphasize the running game hard in the first half. It won't be effective at first, but the point will be to open up the play-action passing game and wear down the defense for the second half.

The game will be close at the half, but the Skins will open it up in the third quarter with a bomb to Santana Moss and the defense will force a turnover in Giants' territory that will lead to a Portis touchdown run.

Portis and Betts will run hard in the fourth quarter and keep the Giants' offense off the field and stop all chance of a Eli Manning led comeback. The Giants will get a late touchdown, but it won't be enough.

A Dip into Youtube

Christ, man. There's just some things you don't talk about in public.



(It's really only 1:27 long and probably not too safe for work)