Missed the picks last week as I spent the weekend at Edinboro University Homecoming. I only did two years of graduate school at Edinboro, but have been to six Boro homecomings compared to zero at Syracuse.
Its just a different environment compared to other homecoming celebrations. Edinboro is old school and new school. Saturday morning features a parade with floats made by the Greeks (not the ones from Athens, the ones that get paddled, circle fat parts in marker, and date rape) and a lot of drinking. There's a football game, but out of the nearly 7,000 students that attend Edinboro, about 300 of them care. And there isn't anything wrong with that, it's just Edinboro. And maybe that's why I love it so much.
True story - We were at a local bar at the start of the football game and all three televisions were showing the Edinboro game. On Edinboro's first possession they marched down the field and scored a touchdown. Out of the 75 people in the bar, I was the only one who noticed and clapped. We went to a second bar and the Penn State football game was on every television. But that's Edinboro and its more fun than you could possibly imagine.
So, here are The Dip's Week 6 picks (Home Team in CAPS and spreads based on Sportsbook.com lines). Edinboro did win its homecoming game 70-19. But not that it matters.
For the Season: 8-11-1 Locks of the Week - 2-2
Houston (+6.5) at JACKSONVILLE - Houston swept the Jags last season when the Texans were worse and Jacksonville was better. Garrard is due for a three-four INT game and the Texans will focus on stopping the run game. Take out MJD's 52-yard run last week and the Jags aren't exactly moving it up and down the field. This is way too many points in this series. Think 17-13 Jacksonville.
St. Louis (+9.5) at BALTIMORE - St. Louis might not score more than 3 points, but what has Baltimore shown to suggest they would score 13? The whopping 9 they put up on San Fran last week was pathetic. The Ravens' defense might be getting points here based on last year's performance. If Gus gets more than a second to throw the ball, Torry Holt can get open on these corners. If this were the Ed Jones Dome, St. Louis could pull the upset, but in Baltimore it could be tough. Think 15-10 Ravens.
New England (-5.5) at DALLAS - The Cowboys looked awful on Monday night and not just Romo's picks. They couldn't get any run game going and the receivers dropped too many balls. Belichick watched that game and realized that Romo couldn't read the zone coverage. That doesn't bode well for the Boys against a defense that is best in the league at disguising coverages and blitzes. Dallas will get its points, but its secondary can't contain Moss, Stallworth, Welker, Watson, and Faulk. No chance. Unless Roy Williams can horsecollar every receiver for the Pats, Brady will get another 3-4 TD game. Think 34-27 New England.
New York Giants (-3.5) at ATLANTA - I had to watch the massacre that was the Giants defensive line against the Eagles offensive line two weeks with McNabb as the starting QB of my fantasy team. Needless to say, I lost that week. What are those guys going to do against the rookie tackles of the Falcons? This could be ugly. If Petrino loses his mind and goes to the statue Leftwich at any point, they should charge him with accessory to murder cause that dude will get killed. My cell phone moves in the pocket better than that guy. With the turnovers and sacks, think 28-10 Giants.
LOCK OF THE WEEK
SEATTLE (-6.5) over New Orleans - Thought about New England or New York here but hate the road favorite as the LOTW. Plus, New Orleans is a train wreck and now the Saints have to travel across the country to play in Qwest field, one of the harder road venues to play. Plus, Seattle is home after getting shut out by Pittsburgh, pouring salt in the wound from the Super Bowl two years ago. This is going to be one pissed off Seahawks team. Think 27-17 Seattle.
BONUS LOCK
ARIZONA (-4) over Carolina - Vinnie Testaverde? C'mon. He's the best they could get? David Carr's back stiffened up on the team flight to Arizona. They probably made his sorry ass ride in coach, or a flight attendant might have sacked him in the terminal while the Panthers were waiting to board. Glad I kept Steve Smith in my keeper league over Owens and Wayne. Ugh. Think 31-6 Arizona.
Other games - Just my opinions if you want them
KANSAS CITY (+3) over Cincinnati - The Chiefs suck, but can the Bengals actually stop anybody?
CLEVELAND (-4) over Miami - Cleo Lemon, really?
Minnesota (+5) at CHICAGO - Back to Earth for Brian Griese. Cedric Benson might finish with -17 yards in this game.
Philadelphia (-3.5) at NEW YORK JETS - Can McNabb and company be this bad or do they play like they did against Detroit with Westbrook and L.J. Smith back? Here's picking the latter.
Tennessee (+3) at TAMPA BAY - Think VY has a crappy game, but can the Bucs score more than 14? That's a no.
Washington (+3) at GREEN BAY - Please, God. Seriously, please.
Oakland (+9.5) at SAN DIEGO - Division games are always close.
Saturday, October 13, 2007
Friday, October 12, 2007
Redskins - Packers Preview
Week 6 – Washington at Green Bay
(September 4, 2007) Lambeau Field used to mean an automatic loss to any team unfortunate enough to have to travel there. Over the last couple seasons, however, Green Bay has been a friendly site for the opposition as the Packers have a losing record at home going 3-5 in 2005 and 2006. The Redskins will be making their first true road trip of the season with the Monday night game at nearby Philly the only other game away from Fedex. The Skins defense will handle WR Donald Driver and force Favre to go to young WRs Greg Jennings and James Jones. After a few shots from Taylor and Landry, these two will be alligator arming every ball across the middle. The Packers defense is much improved but the Skins should be able to run and before hitting Moss deep on play action. Moss’ speed should be too much to handle for aging cornerback Charles Woodson.
Prediction – Washington 27 – Green Bay 13 (Record 4-1)
Don't think I can stand by my preseason prediction after the way Green Bay's defense has been playing this season. However, they melted in down in the second half of the Bears game and showed a susceptibility to plays made by the TE and RB. Chicago TEs Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark combined for 7 catches, 119 yards, and 2 TDs. Chicago RBs added 3 catches for 37 yards. This is good news for a Redskins' team that has had trouble going vertical and will feature Cooley, Sellers, Portis/Betts, and underneath routes by Thrash and McCardell. Poor Santana Moss will be coming back to the huddle following many decoy go routes.
The Packers and Redskins enter this week with one loss each, both coming in games in which each team held a ten-point halftime lead at home but went on to lose the game. There were a couple of similarities between the two games:
1. Each team followed the gameplan of playing to keep the lead rather than extend it. Both teams ran the ball ineffectively in the second half. Run first down, run second down, incomplete pass on third down.
2. The Packers had 32 total yards of offense before their final drive of the game where they totaled 41 yards in driving for the tying touchdown. The Redskins had 31 total yards of offense before their final drive of the game where they totaled 32 yards.
3. Each team had a costly second-half turnover that directly led to an opponents' touchdown on the following drive.
4. Both teams played aggressive defense in the first half as Chicago and New York had just over 120 yards of offense and 10 total points. In the second half, both teams employed the prevent defense and got picked apart for 7 scores or 41 points.
The Redskins learned from their mistake and kept the pressure on Detroit in the next game. After allowing only 56 yards and four punts in the first half, the Skins picked off two passes and only surrendered a field goal in the second half. I have a feeling that Packers' coach Mike McCarthy will make the same adjustments and this game will be hard-hitting from the first quarter through the fourth.
The keys to this game will be on the offensive and defensive lines and in the secondary of the Skins. Washington will need to get pressure on Favre and not let him improvise and allow the receivers time to work open. Injuries to Green Bay's offensive line should help the Skins defense get to Favre without blitzing allowing extra defenders to drop back into coverage.
Green Bay likes short passes and allowing their receivers to run after the catch. The Redskins secondary will have to tackle on the first opportunity or the next opportunity will be in the endzone. If the Packers pick up the Skins' blitzes, then Favre will have time to hit Driver and Jennings on quick slants which often lead to long touchdowns.
The Skins line will need to keep Packer DEs Aaron Kampman and Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila off Campbell or he'll be attempting his throws from his back.
While I think the Skins have a great chance to win this game, I don't think they are at the point yet where they can go on the road and beat a good team. In the second half of this season, they could be. I do think they'll hold the lead for parts of this game, but will probably lose it in the fourth quarter.
Prediction: Green Bay 24 - Washington 20
(September 4, 2007) Lambeau Field used to mean an automatic loss to any team unfortunate enough to have to travel there. Over the last couple seasons, however, Green Bay has been a friendly site for the opposition as the Packers have a losing record at home going 3-5 in 2005 and 2006. The Redskins will be making their first true road trip of the season with the Monday night game at nearby Philly the only other game away from Fedex. The Skins defense will handle WR Donald Driver and force Favre to go to young WRs Greg Jennings and James Jones. After a few shots from Taylor and Landry, these two will be alligator arming every ball across the middle. The Packers defense is much improved but the Skins should be able to run and before hitting Moss deep on play action. Moss’ speed should be too much to handle for aging cornerback Charles Woodson.
Prediction – Washington 27 – Green Bay 13 (Record 4-1)
Don't think I can stand by my preseason prediction after the way Green Bay's defense has been playing this season. However, they melted in down in the second half of the Bears game and showed a susceptibility to plays made by the TE and RB. Chicago TEs Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark combined for 7 catches, 119 yards, and 2 TDs. Chicago RBs added 3 catches for 37 yards. This is good news for a Redskins' team that has had trouble going vertical and will feature Cooley, Sellers, Portis/Betts, and underneath routes by Thrash and McCardell. Poor Santana Moss will be coming back to the huddle following many decoy go routes.
The Packers and Redskins enter this week with one loss each, both coming in games in which each team held a ten-point halftime lead at home but went on to lose the game. There were a couple of similarities between the two games:
1. Each team followed the gameplan of playing to keep the lead rather than extend it. Both teams ran the ball ineffectively in the second half. Run first down, run second down, incomplete pass on third down.
2. The Packers had 32 total yards of offense before their final drive of the game where they totaled 41 yards in driving for the tying touchdown. The Redskins had 31 total yards of offense before their final drive of the game where they totaled 32 yards.
3. Each team had a costly second-half turnover that directly led to an opponents' touchdown on the following drive.
4. Both teams played aggressive defense in the first half as Chicago and New York had just over 120 yards of offense and 10 total points. In the second half, both teams employed the prevent defense and got picked apart for 7 scores or 41 points.
The Redskins learned from their mistake and kept the pressure on Detroit in the next game. After allowing only 56 yards and four punts in the first half, the Skins picked off two passes and only surrendered a field goal in the second half. I have a feeling that Packers' coach Mike McCarthy will make the same adjustments and this game will be hard-hitting from the first quarter through the fourth.
The keys to this game will be on the offensive and defensive lines and in the secondary of the Skins. Washington will need to get pressure on Favre and not let him improvise and allow the receivers time to work open. Injuries to Green Bay's offensive line should help the Skins defense get to Favre without blitzing allowing extra defenders to drop back into coverage.
Green Bay likes short passes and allowing their receivers to run after the catch. The Redskins secondary will have to tackle on the first opportunity or the next opportunity will be in the endzone. If the Packers pick up the Skins' blitzes, then Favre will have time to hit Driver and Jennings on quick slants which often lead to long touchdowns.
The Skins line will need to keep Packer DEs Aaron Kampman and Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila off Campbell or he'll be attempting his throws from his back.
While I think the Skins have a great chance to win this game, I don't think they are at the point yet where they can go on the road and beat a good team. In the second half of this season, they could be. I do think they'll hold the lead for parts of this game, but will probably lose it in the fourth quarter.
Prediction: Green Bay 24 - Washington 20
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